From al-Qaeda in Iraq to Islamic State: The Story of Insurgency in Iraq and Syria in 2003-2015

Tomáš Kaválek
238 22

Abstract


Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) currently controls vast territories in Iraq and Syria with estimated population up to 5 million people. In June 2014, ISIS made a move to conquer Sunni areas of Iraq in provinces like Ninawa, Salah ad-Din, and al-Anbar. Until May 2015, there had been no significant military success combating ISIS. This paper argues that renewed Sunni insurgency in Iraq was indeed brewing for several years. ISIS campaign is described within the framework of the concept of insurgency. The text provides a comprehensive narrative of ISIS’ and its organizational predecessors’ insurgency in Iraq and Syria in the period of 2003-2015. As a conceptual background it utilizes a lifespan of insurgencies that argues that each insurgency must pass from proto-insurgency to large scale insurgency phase, and finally to a ―conventional stage‖ when insurgency is strong enough to meet counterinsurgent in open battlefield. A lifespan of ISIS insurgency indeed reached tipping point and entered ―conventional stage‖ in June 2014 when it assumed control over key Sunni areas of Iraq.


Keywords


Abu Bakr al-Bahdadi, Abu Mus‟ab az-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, insurgency, Islamic State, IS, ISIS, Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham

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References


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Nějaká kniha která shrnuje ten bordel

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O’Bagy, “Jihad in Syria.”

Jennifer Cararella, “Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, December 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/JN%20Final.pdf.

Christoph Reuter, “The Terror Strategist: Secret Files Reveal the Structure of Islamic State,” Speigel, April 18, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/islamic-state-files-show-structure-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Aaron Y. Zelin, “Al-Qaeda Announces an Islamic State in Syria,” Washington Institute for the Near East Policy, Policy Alert, April 9, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/al-qaeda-announces-an-islamic-state-in-syria.

Weiss, and Hassan, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.

For a comprehensive account on foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria see Daniel Byman, and Jeremy Shapiro, “Be Afraid. Be A Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq,” Brookings, November 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/11/western-foreign-fighters-in-syria-and-iraq-byman-shapiro/be-afraid--web.pdf.

Kaválek, “Running the Islamic State Part 2: Leadership.”

Lister, “Profilling the Islamic State,” 11.

Lewis, “Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgent Part 1.”

Mushreq Abbas, “Al-Qaeda Militants Raid Iraq's Abu Ghraib, Taji Prisons,” al-Monitor, July 25, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/iraq-al-qaeda-prison-raid-abu-ghraib.html.

Lister, “Profilling the Islamic State,” 10.

David Kenner, "Panetta: 1,000 al Qaeda terrorists still in Iraq", Foreign Policy's The Cable, June 9, 2011, accessed May 31, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/06/09/panetta-1000-al-qaeda-terrorists-still-in-iraq/, and Qassim Abdul-Zahram, "Al-Qaeda making comeback in Iraq, officials say", USA Today, October 9, 2012, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/10/09/al-qaeda-iraq/1623297/.

Lewis, "The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala."

“Iraq Body Count Database,” IBC, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/; and “UN: Iraq: July deadliest month in years as vilence kills over 1000 people,” UN News Centre, August 1, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45546#.VWyvS8_hDIU.

“Iraq Body Count Database. ”

Firas al-Hakkar, “The Mysterious Fall of Raqqa, Syria’s Kandahar,” al-Akhbar, November 8, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/17550.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, “ISI Leader Rebrands ISI and al-Nusra Front as “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,” (translation provided by SITE Intelligence Group), April 8, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://triceratops.brynmawr.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10066/13323/AOB20130408.pdf?sequence=1.

Thomas Joscely, “Al Nusrah Front leader renews allegiance to al Qaeda, rejects new name,” The Long War Journal, April 10, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/04/al_nusrah_front_lead.php.

Thomas Joscelyn, “Analysis: Zawahiri’s letter to al Qaeda branches in Syria, Iraq,” The Long War Journal, June 10, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/06/analysis_alleged_let.php.

Ibid.

Abū Muh. ammad al-‘Adnānī, “Hādha wa‘d Allāh,” Mu’assasat al-Furqān, 29 June 2014. Transcript: http://www.gulfup. com/?3D7MKR.

William McCants, “Zahwahiri’s counter-caliphate,” War on the Rocks, September 5, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://warontherocks.com/2014/09/zawahiris-counter-caliphate/.

For example Daniel Byman, and Jennifer Williams, “ISIS vs. Al Qaeda: Jihadism’s Global Civil War,” The National Interest, February 24, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-vs-al-qaeda-jihadism%E2%80%99s-global-civil-war-12304.

Caris, and Reynolds, “ISIS Governance in Syria.”

Weiss, and Hassan, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.

Wright, “A Victory in Kobani?.”

“Operation Inherent Resolve,” US Department of Defense, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2014/0814_iraq/.

Richard Spencer, “Iraqi army 'abandoned tanks, artillery and Humvees' to Isil in fall of Ramadi,” The Telegraph, May 19, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11616780/Iraqi-army-abandoned-tanks-artillery-and-Humvees-to-Isil-in-fall-of-Ramadi.html.

al Rifai, “ISIL captures strategic Syrian city of Palmyra.”

“ “Lan Yadurrukum Ila Adha, speech by Sheikh Abi Muhammad al-Adnani al-Shami,” posted to YouTube by Al-‘Anood al-Rafidayn,July 30, 2013, accessed November 15, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=7RP-zOreeIE.

Jessica D. Lewis, “AQI’s Soldiers Harvest Campaign,” Institute for the Study of War, October 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Backgrounder_SoldiersHarvest.pdf.

Stephen Wicken, and Jessica D. Lewis, “From Protest Movement to Armed Resistance: 2013 Iraq Update #24,” Institute for the Study of War, June 14, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://iswiraq.blogspot.com.tr/2013/06/from-protest-movement-to-armed.html.

Lewis, “AQI’s Soldiers Harvest Campaign,” 3.

Wicken, and Lewis, “From Protest Movement to Armed Resistance.”

“Killing of Sheikh al-Badran Tribes killed in armed attack in Nineveh, south of Mosul,” Al Mada Pres, August 27, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.almadapress.com/ar/news/17163/%D9%8 5%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%AE- %D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1- %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8 %B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A- %D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%88%D9%89- %D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC.

Lewis, "The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala."

Ibid.

Sly, “Al-Qaeda force captures Fallujah amid rise in violence in Iraq,”

Lewis, “AQI’s Soldiers Harvest Campaign,” 2.

On increased covert presence of ISIS in Mosul 2013 see Adam Schreck, “Al-Qaeda in Iraq gathering strength in northern stronghold of Mosul,” The Daily Star, June 21, 2013, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-21/221072-al-qaeda-in-iraq-gathering-strength-in-northern-stronghold-of-mosul.ashx.

Jim Sciutto, Jamie Crawford, and Chelsea J. Carter, “ISIS can 'muster' between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters, CIA says,” CNN, September 12, 2014, accessed May 30, 2015, http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/11/world/meast/isis-syria-iraq/.

Martin Chulov, Fazel Hawramy, and Spencer Ackerman, “Iraq army capitulates to Isis militants in four cities,” Guardian, June 12, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/mosul-isis-gunmen-middle-east-states.

Jill Reilly, and Richard Spillet, “Iraq's second city in flames as al Qaeda terrorists storm a prison and free hundreds of fellow militants while civilians flee from street battles in Mosul in droves,” Daily Mail, Juna 10, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2653948/Hundreds-armed-Islamist-militants-control-Iraqs-second-largest-city-Mosul.html#ixzz3c1NlsS35.

Kareem Fahim, and Suadad al-Salhy, “Exhausted and Bereft, Iraqi Soldiers Quit Fight,” New York Times, June 10, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/world/middleeast/exhausted-and-bereft-iraqi-soldiers-quit-fight.html?contentCollection=world&action=click&module=NextInCollection®ion=Footer&pgtype=article&_r=0.

Mushreq Abbas, “ISIS weighs approach on Baghdad,” al-Monitor, June 11, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iraq-mosul-fall-army-breakdown.html.

Sinan Adnan, and Aaron Reese, “Beyond the Islamic State: Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency,” Institute for the Study of War, October 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Sunni%20Insurgency%20in%20Iraq.pdf.

Sciutto, Crawford, and Carter, “ISIS can 'muster' between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters, CIA says.”

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, “How Many Fighters Does Islamic State Really Have?,” War on the Rocks, February 9, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/how-many-fighters-does-the-islamic-state-really-have/.

Kaválek, “Running the Islamic State Part 3,” and Weiss and Hassan, “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.”

Faraj Obagi, “IS kills 500 members of Albu Nimr tribe.”

“Clanging of the Sword Part IV.”

Ibid.

Alexander, and Stewart, “U.S. sees Iraqi offensive to retake Mosul in April-May time frame.”

Nancy A. Youssef, “Pentagon Scrubs Major Attack on ISIS,” The Daily Beast, February 27, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/27/pentagon-scrubs-major-attack-on-isis.html.

About chronical misconduct of Shi’ite militias fueling Sunni’s distrust towards Baghdad see Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: Pro-Government Militias’ Trail of Death,” July 31, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/07/31/iraq-pro-government-militias-trail-death.

Zeed, “Controversy surrounds alleged violations by Shiite forces in Tikrit.”

“How ISIS Captured Ramadi.”

Spencer, “Iraqi army 'abandoned tanks, artillery and Humvees' to Isil in fall of Ramadi.”

al Rifai, “ISIL captures strategic Syrian city of Palmyra.”

Martin Chulov, “Isis leader incapacitated with suspected spinal injuries after air strike,” Guardian, May 1, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/01/isis-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-incapacitated-suspected-spinal-injuries-iraq.

Ted Thornhill, “Blown to pieces: Iraqi military reveal the moment Islamic State's second-in-command was killed alongside dozens of his followers in coalition air strike on mosque,” Daily Mail, May 13, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3080090/Islamic-State-s-second-command-killed-alongside-dozens-followers-coalition-air-strike-Iraqi-mosque.html.

Helen Cooper, and Eric Schmitt, “ISIS Official Killed in U.S. Raid in Syria, Pentagon Says,” New York Times, May 16, 2015, accessed May 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/world/middleeast/abu-sayyaf-isis-commander-killed-by-us-forces-pentagon-says.html?_r=0.

Kaválek, “Running the Islamic State Part.”

Ibid.

Jarret M. Brachman, and William F. McCants, “Stealing Al-Qa’ida’s Playbook,” Combating Terrorism Center, February 2006, accessed May 31, 2015, https://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Stealing-Al-Qaidas-Playbook.pdf.

Abu Bakr Naji, “The Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Umma Will Pass,” (translated by William McCants), accessed May 31, 2015, https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/abu-bakr-naji-the-management-of-savagery-the-most-critical-stage-through-which-the-umma-will-pass.pdf.

Stephen Ulph, “NEW ONLINE BOOK LAYS OUT AL-QAEDA'S MILITARY STRATEGY,” Terrorism Focus 2 (2006), accesed May 31, 2015, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/tm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=27713&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=238&no_cache=1#.VWGI8U9a-kp.

Sayyid Qutb, “Milestones,” (first published 1964), accessed May 31, 2015, http://majalla.org/books/2005/qutb-nilestone.pdf.

Ayman az-Zawahiri, “The Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner,” (first published 2001), accessed May 31, 2015, https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/6759609-knights-under-the-prophet-banner.pdf.

See translated excerpts: “Abu Musab al-Suri's Military Theory of Jihad,” SITE Intelligence Group, 2010, accessed May 1, 2015, http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/index.php/about-us/21-jihad/21-suri-a-mili.

See report on ISIS‘ recruitment of educated experts by A. Agron, “Wanted: Western Professionals To Join The Islamic State (ISIS),” MEMRI, May 15, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.memrijttm.org/wanted-western-professionals-to-join-the-islamic-state-isis.html.

“Dabiq. Issue 1. The Return of Khilafah,” 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://media.clarionproject.org/files/09-2014/isis-isil-islamic-state-magazine-Issue-1-the-return-of-khilafah.pdf.

Weiss, andHassan, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.

Naji, “The Management of Savagery.”

Tomáš Kaválek, “Running the Islamic State Part 3: Limits of Governance,” Sekuritaci.cz, April 25, 2014, acessed May 31, 2015, http://www.sekuritaci.cz/running-the-islamic-state-part-3-limits-of-governance/.

Naji, “The Management of Savagery,” 72.

Faraj Obagi, “IS kills 500 members of Albu Nimr tribe,” al-Monitor, November 5, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/11/iraq-tribe-albu-nimr-who-are-they.html#ixzz3btBg2OJ6.

Alastair Crooke, “The ISIS' 'Management of Savagery' in Iraq,” Huffington Post, June 30, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/iraq-isis-alqaeda_b_5542575.html.

See propaganda movie “Clanging of the Sword Part IV.”

Naji, “The Management of Savagery,” 108.

For example Weiss, and Hassan, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.

Brachman, and McCants, “Stealing Al-Qa’ida’s Playbook,” 6.

Hassan Hassan, “Isis has reached new depths of depravity. But there is a brutal logic behind it,” Guardian, February 8, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/08/isis-islamic-state-ideology-sharia-syria-iraq-jordan-pilot.

Michael W. S. Ryan, “Al-Qaeda’s Purpose in Yemen Described in Works of Jihad Strategists,” Terrorism Monitor 8 (2010), accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35964#.VWGX3k9a-kr.

William McCants, William, “Al Qaeda Is Doing Nation-Building. Should We Worry?,” Foreign Policy, April 30, 2012, accessed May 31, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/04/30/al-qaeda-is-doing-nation-building-should-we-worry/.

Michael W. S: Ryan, “Hot Issue: Dabiq: What Islamic State’s New Magazine Tells Us about Their Strategic Direction, Recruitment Patterns and Guerrilla Doctrine,” Terrorism Monitor, August 1, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/tm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42702&cHash=0efbd71af77fb92c064b9403dc8ea838#.VWGJDU9a-kp.

Ibid.

Kaválek, “Running the Islamic State Part 3.”

Naji, “The Management of Savagery.”

Crooke, “The ISIS' 'Management of Savagery' in Iraq,” and Terrence McCoy, “The calculated madness of the Islamic State’s horrifying brutality,” Washington Post, August 12, 2014, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/08/12/the-calculated-madness-of-the-islamic-states-horrifying-brutality/?tid=hp_mm&hpid=z3.

Brachman, and McCants, “Stealing Al-Qa’ida’s Playbook.”

“Zawahiri’s Letter to Zarqawi.”